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CPO futures average price forecast at RM2,300-RM2,700 per tonne this year

8th March, 2018

KUALA LUMPUR: Bursa Malaysia Crude Palm Oil (CPO) futures average price is expected to linger at a fundamental bottom of between RM2,300 and RM2,350 per tonne this year and has a RM2,700 per tonne potential upside, said an industry expert.

Oil World Executive Director Thomas Mielke said the forecast would also depend on currency performance.

“There is also upward potential (for average CPO price) if the currency continues to weaken.

“And if production doesn’t come up to expectations, we can probably go to RM2,700 per tonne if everything goes well, but I don’t see much more upside potential,” he told reporters at the annual Palm and Lauric Oils Conference and Exhibition, Price Outlook 2018/2019 (POC 2018) here Wednesday.

Mielke also forecast that palm oil output in Malaysia, the second largest palm oil producer, would climb to 20.76 million tonnes in 2018 from 19.92 million tonnes in 2017.

As for Indonesia, the largest producer, he estimated the output to increase to 38.8 million tonnes this year compared with 36.8 million tonnes last year.

Mielke also projected the world’s palm oil production to reach 70.84 million million tonnes, a three-million tonne surplus, compared with 67.87 million tonnes in the previous year.

On palm oil consumption in 2017, broken down by usage, he said the share of the food industry topped the list at 45.5 million tonnes (70 per cent), followed by energy industry, particularly biofuels, at 11.5 million tonnes (17.8 per cent), chemical industry at 5.7 million tonnes (8.8 per cent), and other sectors at 2.2 million tonnes (3.4 per cent).

He said palm oil producing countries have enough output for food usage to satisfy rising requirements, with countries like Argentina and Brazil having domestic resources, and Indonesia at the helm.

But Mielke described Indonesia’s target for its biodiesel consumption as being too optimistic based on what it was going to produce.

“This year is a year of surplus for palm oil but 2020 may be the year we may see the shortage happening and may continue after (that),” he said.

About 1,700 participants are attending the three-day POC 2018 which is organised by Bursa Malaysia Bhd. POC 2018 is a leading international platform in the palm and lauric oils industry which gathers various stakeholders from the oils and fats fraternity. –Bernama

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